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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 16 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model