Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 63

New York Jets 21 – Seattle Seahawks 19

(11:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to SEA 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model