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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 46

New York Jets 21 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at SEA 41 for 5 yards (27-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.20 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model