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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.11 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP