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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 34

New York Jets 21 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson [8-C.Bryant].

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.97 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP