Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

(15:00) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 3 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model