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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model