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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.69 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model