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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model