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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 27

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 4-E.Pineiro 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.24 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP