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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:07) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.34 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model