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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to CAR 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Moore to CAR 19 for 7 yards (53-V.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model