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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 4

Carolina Panthers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 4-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP