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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP