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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 1-R.White up the middle to CAR 9 for 2 yards (56-T.Wallace, 8-J.Horn).

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model