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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.39 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP