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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 28

Washington Commanders 28 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 47-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.10 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model