4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 81

Washington Commanders 28 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to TEN 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 37 for 8 yards (58-J.Magee).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model