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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 23

Tennessee Titans 7 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model