4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 34

Washington Commanders 35 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 47-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model