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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 38

Washington Commanders 35 – Tennessee Titans 19

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 12-L.McCaffrey to TEN 31 for 7 yards (57-L.Gifford, 37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.21 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model