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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.57 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP