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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 2

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:13) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP