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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.66 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model