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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP