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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.43 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model