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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to PHI 5 for 6 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson; 17-N.Dean).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.31 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model