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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 2 at the 27
Carolina Panthers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 22
What Actually Happened
(8:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 17-X.Legette.
The Three Options
GO
+1.44 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.58 EP
KICK
+0.66 EP
- 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
- 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT
-0.80 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
