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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to CAR 3, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP