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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to PHI 38 for 13 yards (36-T.McCollum) [3-N.Smith].

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model