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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-R.Lovato. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 1 yard (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.16 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model