Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(5:24) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to PHI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.86 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model