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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-R.Lovato. 13-D.Thompkins to PHI 47 for 15 yards (28-W.Shipley; 47-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model