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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model