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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 8-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-K.Toney to CLE 47 for 19 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model