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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to PIT 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 19-C.Austin to PIT 19 for 9 yards (29-C.Mitchell; 37-Da.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model