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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.72 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP