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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(:28) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model