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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.97 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model