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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 91

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 8-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to CLE 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 87-K.Toney. PENALTY on CLE-87-K.Toney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.43 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 91, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model