4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 8-E.Moore ran ob at PIT 46 for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model