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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP