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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 9 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP