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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 18

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 32-I.Davis pushed ob at MIA 3 for 15 yards (6-A.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model