4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 15 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP