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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 22

New York Jets 20 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 18-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model