Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 84

New York Jets 23 – Miami Dolphins 15

(13:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. NYJ-19-I.Charles was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.60 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 84, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model