4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 15 – New York Jets 23

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model