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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 64

New York Jets 23 – Miami Dolphins 23

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-M.Washington to MIA 22 for 10 yards (21-A.Davis; 52-S.Eguavoen).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model