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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 23 – New York Jets 23

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-Z.Triner. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 13 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.64 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model